Product-market fit · Use case

“Do we have product-market fit yet?”

A product-market fit survey asks active users “How would you feel if you could no longer use [product]?” with three answers: very disappointed, somewhat disappointed, not disappointed. Sean Ellis's rule of thumb is that companies with strong traction almost always had more than 40% answer “very disappointed” (source below); the follow-ups here ask each group why, so the score turns into the one benefit to protect and the one gap to fix.

The answer

The very-disappointed group shares one benefit: the invoice goes out the same day the work ends. The somewhat-disappointed group wants the same thing but reconciles payments by hand.

An example of the line the Agent Results Brief leads with.
The basics

The Sean Ellis question, its three answers and the 40% rule of thumb

The question is Sean Ellis's: “How would you feel if you could no longer use [product]?” with the answers very disappointed, somewhat disappointed and not disappointed. First Round Review's account of how Superhuman ran it, How Superhuman Built an Engine to Find Product/Market Fit, states Ellis's rule of thumb: companies that struggled to find growth almost always had less than 40% of users answer “very disappointed,” and companies with strong traction almost always exceeded that. It's a rule of thumb from Ellis's experience across many startups, not a law. Superhuman's own follow-ups were what type of people would benefit most, the main benefit, and how to improve; those are the first three of the standard set below; the two after them are ours.

01

Very disappointed

Your fit is here. They've built a habit around one benefit. Ask what they'd lose and who else is like them; that's the benefit to protect and the person to find more of.

  • What would you miss most if it were gone tomorrow?
  • Who else do you know who'd feel the same way?
02

Somewhat disappointed

Useful, not essential. Split them by the benefit they name: the ones who name the same benefit as the very-disappointed group are one gap away. Ask what that gap is.

  • What's missing for it to be something you couldn't do without?
  • Which part of the job does it hand back to you?
03

Not disappointed

Not your market, or not yet. Don't build for them, but ask who they think it's for; they often describe your real customer better than your fans do.

  • Who do you think it's really for?
  • What did you expect it to be when you signed up?
01 · The questions

Product-market fit survey questions Spoke asks, by answer

Under every question is the follow-up Spoke asks when the first answer is vague. That second question is where the real answer usually is.

If they'd be very disappointed

When to ask: right after someone answers “very disappointed”
  1. What would you miss most if it were gone tomorrow?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What would you do on the first day without it?

  2. What were you doing before you found [product]?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What was the worst week of doing it that way?

  3. Who else do you know who'd feel the same way?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What do they have in common with you?

  4. Which part of [product] would you fight to keep?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What would break in your week if it went?

  5. What nearly lost you in the first month?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What got you past that?

  6. How do you describe [product] to someone who hasn't heard of it?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What's the word you use for what it does?

If they'd be somewhat disappointed

When to ask: right after someone answers “somewhat disappointed”
  1. What's missing for [product] to be something you couldn't do without?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    When did you last hit that gap?

  2. Which part of the job does [product] hand back to you?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What do you reach for at that point?

  3. What does [product] do well enough that you keep it around?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What would make that part great rather than good enough?

  4. What would have to change for you to answer “very disappointed”?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    Of those changes, which one would move you on its own?

  5. What brings you back to it in a normal week?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What happens in the weeks you don't come back?

  6. What did you hope it would do that it hasn't yet?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    How close has it come?

If they wouldn't be disappointed

When to ask: right after someone answers “not disappointed”
  1. What are you using [product] for right now, if anything?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What did you open it for the last time you did?

  2. What did you try to do with it that didn't work out?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    At what point did you stop trying?

  3. What would make you come back to it?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What would need to be true on the first day back?

  4. Who do you think [product] is really for?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    How is that person different from you?

  5. What did you expect it to be when you signed up?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    Where did that expectation come from?

The standard follow-ups, for everyone

When to ask: after the group-specific questions, whatever the answer
  1. What type of person do you think would benefit most from [product]?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What are they trying to get done that you're not?

  2. What is the main benefit you get from [product]?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What's the last thing it did for you that you'd have missed otherwise?

  3. How can we improve [product] for you?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What would you do first once that improvement shipped?

  4. What would you use instead if [product] no longer existed?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What would you lose in the switch?

  5. What's the closest thing to [product] you'd considered before?

    If the answer is vague, Spoke asks

    What kept you from picking it?

Send these questions Spoke asks each person on their own and follows up on every vague answer.
02 · The interview

How the interview goes.

Every person gets interviewed, not surveyed. Spoke asks, listens, and follows up on what that person actually said. Here's an example.

Spoke
Product-market fit · 5 min
You said you'd be somewhat disappointed if you couldn't use the app. What's missing for it to be something you couldn't do without?
Honestly it's fine for bookings. It's the reminders. I still text people myself.
When you text someone yourself, what's the reminder for that the app doesn't cover?
Deposits. The app reminds them of the time but not that they owe a deposit, so I chase it by hand the night before.
On a night you didn't chase deposits, what happened the next day?
03 · The answer

What the answer looks like.

Read the answer, not the transcripts: themes ranked by how many people raised them, the quotes behind each, and the places where two groups disagree.

Agent Results Brief Final
Summary

Of the people who answered, 52 would be very disappointed, 63 somewhat and 31 not. The very-disappointed group shares one benefit: the invoice goes out the same day the work ends and the client pays from the link. The somewhat-disappointed group names the same benefit but reconciles payments by hand because there's no bank sync, and that's the gap they'd need closed. The not-disappointed group mostly used it once, for one client, and went back to a document. What to do: double down on same-day invoicing, build bank sync for the somewhat group, stop chasing the one-client group.

The very and somewhat groups agree on the benefit and split on what's missing.
Very: same-day invoice, nothing missing · 52
Somewhat: same-day invoice, but no bank sync · 38
What to double down on, and what to fix
1Make same-day invoicing the headline on the site and in onboarding; it's the benefit the very-disappointed group names.
2Build bank sync next; it's the one gap that moves the somewhat-disappointed group who already value the same benefit.
3Stop marketing to people with a single client; they're not disappointed and won't be.
What people said · The invoice goes out the same day
“I send it from the van before I've driven off.”
“I used to invoice at the end of the month and wait another month to get paid.”
“Clients pay from the link the same day. That never happened before.”
Themes · 146 responses
Very disappointed: the invoice goes out the same day52
Somewhat disappointed: no bank sync, reconciling by hand38
Not disappointed: used it once, for one client31
Very disappointed: clients pay faster from the link25
Sentiment
44% positive35% mixed21% negative

An example Agent Results Brief. The counts, themes and quotes are illustrative, not from a real survey.

The follow-up

What Spoke does after “I'd be pretty disappointed”

The three answers sort people. The follow-up finds out what each person would actually lose, which is what you can build on. One example per answer:

Example · Very disappointed · a shared inbox for a small design agency
QuestionWhat would you miss most if it were gone tomorrow?
First answerI'd be pretty disappointed. It's useful, we're in it all day.
Spoke follows upIf it vanished tonight, what's the first thing tomorrow morning that would go wrong?
Real answerNobody would know who'd replied to the client. Before, two of us answered the same email on the same afternoon and the client noticed. That's the thing I'd lose: knowing it's handled.
What it uncovered

“Useful” meant one specific benefit: knowing a client email is handled and by whom. That's the benefit to put on the homepage, not “all your email in one place.”

Example · Somewhat disappointed · a meal-planning app
QuestionWhat's missing for it to be something you couldn't do without?
First answerIt's nice to have. I'd find something else, probably.
Spoke follows upThe last time you planned the week's meals, at what point did you leave the app?
Real answerWhen I got to the shop. The list is in the app but the shop's own app has the offers, so I plan in yours and shop in theirs and stuff falls through the gap.
What it uncovered

The gap is the handoff to the shop, not the planning. One export or one integration moves this person, and probably the others who name the same benefit.

Example · Not disappointed · a screen-recording tool
QuestionWho do you think it's really for?
First answerI wouldn't really notice. I don't use it much.
Spoke follows upThink of someone who'd be upset if it disappeared. What do they do all day that you don't?
Real answerSupport people, honestly. My friend answers the same question twenty times a week and records it once. I signed up to record one demo and never came back.
What it uncovered

The person who's not disappointed just described the market: support staff who answer the same question repeatedly. That's who to send the next survey to.

How to read it

How to read the split

The score is one number. The reading below, which follows Superhuman's account, is what turns it into a plan.

  1. Send it to people who've used the product recentlyThe question only means something to people who've had the chance to miss it. Send it to users who were active in the last couple of weeks, not to everyone who ever signed up.
  2. Read the very-disappointed group firstTheir answers to “What is the main benefit you get?” cluster around one or two things. That's your benefit, in their words. Their answer to “What type of person would benefit most?” is your customer, in their words.
  3. Split the somewhat-disappointed group by benefitThe ones who name the same benefit as the very-disappointed group are one gap away. Their answer to “What's missing?” is your roadmap. The ones who name a different benefit are a different market; set them aside.
  4. Run it again after you shipFix the gap, wait a few weeks, ask the same people again. The very-disappointed share moving is the only score that matters; the number on its own is not.
Score and reason

What each answer group can tell you

One survey gives you the score and, with the follow-ups, the reason. Here's what to ask each group first and what a vague reply sounds like. More on wording probes in open-ended survey questions; for the related score with a 0–10 scale, see NPS follow-up questions.

AnswerWhat you want to learnAsk firstIf the answer is vague
Very disappointedThe one benefit they'd lose, and who else is like them“What would you miss most if it were gone tomorrow?”“What would you do on the first day without it?”
Somewhat disappointedThe gap between useful and essential“What's missing for it to be something you couldn't do without?”“When did you last hit that gap?”
Not disappointedWho the product is really for, and what they expected“Who do you think it's really for?”“How is that person different from you?”

The question wording, the three answers and the 40% rule of thumb are as reported in First Round Review's How Superhuman Built an Engine to Find Product/Market Fit (Rahul Vohra), which attributes the benchmark to Sean Ellis. No other benchmark on this page; anything else you read about a “good” score is someone's opinion.

04 · How to run it

Three steps, ten minutes.

  1. Write or pick the questionStart from “Do we have product-market fit yet?” or say it your own way. Spoke drafts the goal, the audience and the follow-ups; you edit any of it.
  2. Send the linkShare one link however you reach people. They answer in the browser; you set the time: 5, 10 or 15 minutes (10 by default).
  3. Read the answerThemes ranked by how many people raised them, the quotes behind each, and what to do first. Every transcript is there too.
Send these questions

What do you want to learn, and who's answering?

Do we have product-market fit yet?

Drafted the spec. I'll open with the Ellis question and branch the follow-ups by answer. Should I send it to everyone who signed up, or only to people who used the product in the last two weeks?

Live survey spec
Goal
How each active user would feel without the product, and what the very-disappointed group values that the rest are missing.
Audience
Users who were active in the last two weeks, one link by email
Topics
What they'd lose without it
What's holding the somewhat-disappointed group back
Who asks this

People who need the answer.

Founders
Find out whether you're there, and for whom, before you spend on growth.
Product managers
Turn a fit score into the one benefit to protect and the one gap to close.
Growth and marketing leads
Get the customer and the benefit in users' own words, ready for the homepage.
Customer success
Know which users are one gap away from essential, and what the gap is.
FAQ

Questions about this one.

What is a product-market fit survey?

A short survey that asks active users “How would you feel if you could no longer use [product]?” with three answers: very disappointed, somewhat disappointed, not disappointed. The share who answer “very disappointed” is the score; the follow-up questions turn it into what to protect and what to fix.

What is the Sean Ellis test?

Another name for the same survey. Sean Ellis, who ran growth at several early startups, found that the share of users who'd be very disappointed without the product separated companies that grew from companies that struggled. His rule of thumb is the bar shown above, with its source.

What is a good product-market fit score?

Ellis's rule of thumb, about four in ten active users answering “very disappointed” (the figure and its source are in the section above). It's a rule of thumb from his experience, not a law. Your own score moving after you ship a fix matters more than where it sits today.

What questions are in a product-market fit survey?

The Ellis question, then the standard follow-ups Superhuman used: what type of person would benefit most, the main benefit, and how to improve. Add what they'd use instead. This page groups the follow-ups by answer so the very-disappointed group tells you what to protect and the somewhat group tells you what's missing.

Who should you send a product-market fit survey to?

People who have used the product recently and enough to miss it. Sending it to everyone who ever signed up pulls the score down with people who never really tried it. If you have several kinds of user, read the answers by kind; fit is often strong in one segment and absent in another. Run it again after you ship the fix; the change in the very-disappointed share is the result.

How many responses do you need for a product-market fit survey?

Enough that the split stops moving when a few more answers come in. With a small user base, read the very-disappointed group's answers as interviews rather than as a percentage.

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